Military Analysis
102 Threads
What you need to know about the Russian military presence in Transnistria. ▪️ 60% of the inhabitants of Transnistria are Russians and Ukrainians. They sought to secede from Moldov...
China has every right to send arms to Russia, in their war effort against NATO. So, Mr. Putin, here's a catalogue of Chinese weapons you might be interested. Payments can be in t...
A few thoughts on the Russian winter offensive, which began 3+ weeks ago, and has so far yielded little progress for RU forces. Poor force quality, loss of junior officers, ammunit...
Now that Balloongate has died down, a few thoughts on @CSIS’s recent Taiwan wargaming report. There was a fair bit of discussion of this a few weeks ago, but it’s taken me some tim...
“Is Japan actually the chief candidate to become “Asia’s Ukraine,” rather than Taiwan? A careful consideration would suggest so.” - Thomas Polin https://t.co/fuAV6QCx9j
A few thoughts on the current course of the war. Although winter has proven a transitional phase, with both sides focusing on force reconstitution and positional fighting. The outl...
1/ Ukraine TVD, 1-31 JAN 23. The first month of 2023 saw a determined effort by the VSRF to finally seize control of Bakhmut in central Donetsk, blunt ZSU advances in Luhansk, and...
Recently, comparisons with the WW1 stalemates on the western front from 1915 have been used by some observers of the war in #Ukraine. It makes for good headlines but there is one p...
What’s Next?🧵 The always impressive @witte_sergei treated us to a great thread yesterday, wherein he discusses the possibilities for the soon-to-come Russian winter offensive. I...
End of year thread with @holger_r: Estonian military analyst "Karl" on what to expect in Ukraine in 2023:
Since I've gotten an influx of new followers who are clearly interested in better understanding Putin's War in Ukraine, here is a thread of some of the things I've written that I h...
Instead of trying to encircle Bakhmut and slowly taking it, the Russian High command seems to have decided to launch a frontal attack on the city itself, proving my suspicion that...
Hi all, been a while so figured it would be a good time to give an update on what I've been working on. Basically a ground level up study on supply requirements for Russian units a...
So this entire 'analysis' is just exceptionally dumb but I really must single out this chart which is just such obvious hot nonsense that I burst out laughing the moment I saw it:...
Comparison of Russian and Ukrainian attack schemes: I decided to compare the offensive of Russia in the spring and the counteroffensive of Ukraine in September in order to understa...
@powerfultakes I wonder what's really been going on inside Russia recently. For example, we recently had a situation where Wagner was attacking pointlessly in Bakhmut whilst the...
The Ukrainian southern campaign continues to play out. While their forces fix Russian defenders in the south west, the Ukrainians are advancing from the north. Some observations on...
A bit puzzled by the beginnings of what we're seeing in terms of Russian mobilization. The scale seems larger than what was intended and the organization of it seems rushed and sha...
A few incomplete thoughts on the question of mobilization. It won't solve many of the RU military's challenges in this war, but it could alter the dynamic. Fair to say that these a...
Let me get this straight: 1. Russia thought their "special operation" would last 3 days. 2. After 2 months of fighting with Spetsnaz, Airborne & 190+ BTGs, they achieved NONE of th...
"Carrier is dead" proponents try to paint the picture of a PLARF DF-21 against the USS Gerald Ford alone and unafraid in WestPac, but this is far from reality. While ASBMs/ASCMs...
1/ @ian_matveev, who's one of the smartest Russian-language commentators on the Ukraine war, has posted a very interesting and detailed thread discussing the reasons for Russia's d...
@JohnLChapman I acknowledge I'm one of relatively few that believes it was a deliberate move. These are the relevant facts: - all Russian regulars were withdrawn in advance, leav...
We all knew this was happening to the Russian High Command & that it would get absolutely get the Russian Army defeated in Ukraine. A fair amount of people in high positions in...
